- Any escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices higher, drag on global growth and resist central bank attempts to control inflation.
- Rising global bond yields aren’t just a reaction to central banks’ ‘higher for longer’ message on interest rates, but also to changes in structural factors which underpin bond markets.
- Interest rates will stay at current levels until mid-2024 before starting to fall again
- US economy to grow until at least mid-2024. This increases the likelihood of a ‘soft landing’, but a mild recession is more probable.
- Eurozone is close to, or already in, recession; interest rates there will decline next year.
- China’s economy faces considerable headwinds, but it should beat its 2023 target, while fears of long-term stagnation are overdone.