China’s infrastructure-focused Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) stands out as one of the most monumental opportunities of our times. While the BRI revolves around infrastructure development, it’s much more than just an economic scheme to build new roads or improve airports. It’s a social initiative, as well. By building out power-generation capabilities, investing in telecommunications and, yes, creating new roads, etc., the BRI aims to improve quality of life. The scope is much larger than first meets the eye, which spells potential opportunity for investors.
China’s long-term commitment to the BRI
We’ve often been asked whether investing in China is just another “flavor of the week.” In our view, the answer is a resounding “no.” We believe that there is real, long-term, strategic opportunity in China.
China arguably looks at infrastructure with the most strategic lens of any nation. Infrastructure development has always been the long game for China. Six-lane highways in Beijing and the high-speed maglev (or magnetic levitating) train from Shanghai Pudong International Airport into the city, for example, are testaments to this. China’s vision has been to create infrastructure to connect people and places for travel, transport and freight, for example. These undertakings increase access, which, paired with stronger telecommunications capabilities, another central tenet of the BRI, enable exports. Collectively, these measures all have the goal of supporting economic growth.
Beyond this, the steady stream of well-executed infrastructure projects inspires perennial hope in the Chinese people. Infrastructure projects have helped reduce the wealth gap in China and other Asian nations. For example, in Asia, 400 million people lack access to electricity. BRI projects aim to remedy this, helping to reduce poverty. Infrastructure developments like these demonstrate that there can be greater access to opportunities. We think that the far reach and effectiveness of China’s approach to infrastructure via the BRI should be enough to make other nations take notice.
U.S. China relations in the time of Biden
During the administration of former President Donald Trump, “Twitter diplomacy” and short-term, reactionary behavior characterized the U.S. relationship with China. With President Joe Biden, we think that the relationship with China will change, but it won’t thaw completely.
In general, we expect that President Biden will be more strategic, multilateral and moderate than his presidential predecessor, as indicated by the fact that, upon taking office, one of his first orders of business was to rejoin the Paris Agreement.
We do not expect President Biden to roll back Trump-era tariffs any time soon. They give the U.S. bargaining power to bring new topics to the table. The current Democratic administration may be keen to discuss prototypically “blue” agenda items, including ethics, treatment of minorities and human rights, with the Chinese government. Overall, the U.S.-China relationship may warm a bit under the new administration, but we expect it to remain cool.
Ultimately, China has the second-largest economy in the world, and within the next 15 years it is likely to have the largest. Consequently, despite conflicting political ideologies and strategic tensions, the reigning largest economy, the U.S., will have to get used to sharing the global economic stage.
What does this all mean for markets?
Considering the BRI and the U.S.-China relationship, past, present and future, what how does this shape our outlook for markets? Overall, we have a positive, constructive view on China. Fourth-quarter 2020 performance in China and in emerging markets more broadly was positive, especially compared to developed markets. We are optimistic that these trends will continue. Why? Even when the Chinese economy (as well as the global economy) experienced strain during the coronavirus pandemic, China maintained its commitment to the BRI. We expect this level of commitment to continue, since China has demonstrated such skilled long-term thinking.
China has also experienced promising economic pandemic recovery to date. We view the Chinese economic recovery as a “first in, first out” situation. The pandemic hit China earlier, but the country was able to emerge relatively quickly compared to other regions as a strong reaction brought the virus under control and policy levers were pulled deftly. We think that this is promising for continued economic recovery and long-run growth.
There are several ways investors can access these opportunities, including through China A-shares, China bonds, and private-market investing. Individual goals and volatility tolerance will determine which, if any, of these options may suit an investor. But the bottom line is that we believe that there are compelling reasons for investors to consider China.
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