Global Macro Research
Macroeconomics

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - December 2024

Find out the key macro and geopolitical themes for 2025 in our latest video. From rate cuts to global debt and political risks, stay informed and prepared.

Author
Paul Diggle
Chief Economist

Duration: 4 Mins

Date: 03 Dec 2024

In our Monthly Macro video for December, Paul Diggle, Chief Economist, gives his five key themes to watch out for in 2025. 
  • The rate cutting cycle will be shortened in the US and some emerging markets, with the Fed only cutting by 75bp and the fed funds rate settling at 3.5%-3.75%.
  • Global debt is now US$100 trillion, close to 100% of global GDP. Additional US tax cuts are likely to increase the US deficit further.
  • De-globalisation can create winners like Mexico, Vietnam, and India, which gained export market share during the first US-China trade war.
  • Any ceasefire in Ukraine or the Middle East will be unstable, with ongoing conflict risks for investors next year.
  • The Eurozone faces political risks, with a possible election in France and a planned poll in Germany, and challenges in boosting German growth.