This week

There is a saying in France On ne change pas une équipe qui gagne (one does not change a winning team) and so it came to be on Sunday that incumbent French President, Emmanuel Macron, became the first to win a second term in two decades.

Edging past far right candidate, Marine Le Pen, with 58.5% of the vote, Macron’s victory soothed worries over a possible change in France’s relationship with the EU and the west. Avoiding a Eurosceptic leader, a time when the bloc relies on Paris to take a lead against the challenges presented by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was seen as paramount importance by the French electorate.

However, relief was short lived as markets in Europe headed down something of a cul de sac, sliding to one-month lows, as concerns about spiralling inflation and rising Covid rates in China took charge. Monday saw the European Stoxx 600 index fall 1.8%, dragged lower by commodity prices as traders weighed up global growth prospects.

US markets proved to be much more robust during the week, as news that serial entrepreneur, Elon Musk had clinched a deal to pay $44 billion cash for the social media platform, Twitter. Giving him carte blanche on how to run the ailing firm, the company’s shares rose 5.7%, to move in line with the 40% premium Musk bid. After news of the deal, Wall Street reversed course, driven by a late rally from growth stocks, with the tech heavy NASDAQ climbing 1.29%.

It was a case of déjà vu for technology investors on Thursday, as strong subscriber numbers from Facebook parent Meta Platforms boosted markets further. Meta reported that the number of daily active users grew to 1.96 billion during the first three months of the 2022, marking something of a turnaround, after the social network reported a decline in users for the first time in its history during the end of last year. Although the stock has nearly halved this year, the news was enough for shares to rise 19% on the day.

On the economic data front, Thursday showed that the U.S. economy shrank last quarter for the first time since the pandemic struck two years ago, contracting at an annual rate of 1.4%. The data did come with some positive news mixed in, showing consumers and businesses kept spending en masse, in a strong sign of underlying resilience. The steady spending suggested that the economy could keep expanding throughout this year, even during a rate hiking cycle. The first quarter’s poor showing was partly attributable to slower restocking of goods in shops and warehouses due to staff shortages and by a sharp drop in exports.

The end of the week saw the USD reach par excellence against the Japanese yen with the Bank of Japan vowing to maintain its unlimited bond buying plan, in order to defend its 0.25% 10-year yield target. The Euro fared little better against the greenback, hitting 5-year lows during its worst month since January 2015, hindered further by Russia halting gas exports to Bulgaria and Poland.

Mieux vaut ne pas danser avec le diable (better not to dance with the devil) as some might say.

Next week

Although a truncated week lies ahead, owing to the May Day Bank Holiday, we should still expect a busy 4 working days coming up. Ushering in the first days of summer (supposedly) the incoming week should provide a tale of two central banks as it seems that there may be no “mays” about both the Bank of England’s (BoE) and Federal Reserve’s ambitions to keep on hiking rates.

With market fully pricing in rate rises for both economies, the only question will be by how much and for how long, it seems. The Federal reserve looks set to go first on Wednesday, holding a press conference and issuing a statement detailing their views on the world’s largest economy and what they think an appropriate rate would be, the only debate should be whether they hike by 0.5% or 0.75%.

The BoE of course has already started its rate hiking cycle, raising rates during the last 3 of its meetings, bolstering borrowing costs up to 0.75%. Another 0.25% should be arriving on Thursday as Andrew Bailey & co attempt to tackle the highest levels of inflation seen on domestic shores in 30 years.

Whilst both central banks are largely expected to raise rates by financial markets, the forward guidance should prove fascinating as economists battle to predict how both banks will negotiate spiralling inflation twinned with slowing economies.

There is also plenty to digest in terms of economic data releases for the upcoming week, the highlight being US non-farm Payrolls, made public on Friday. A key piece of information when determining the US central bank’s future rate trajectory, it provides plenty for economists to get their teeth stuck into. The employment data itself will be accompanied by Average Hourly Earnings, allowing us to gauge future inflation expectations as the more consumers earn, the more they tend to spend.

The information in this blog or any response to comments should not be regarded as financial advice. If you are unsure of any of the terminology used you should seek financial advice. Remember that the value of investments can go down as well as up, and could be worth less than what was paid in. The information is based on our understanding as at 29 April 2022.