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The UK’s new Labour government blames its predecessors for leaving the country’s finances in a mess. How true is that? What can Chancellor Rachel Reeves do to fix problems and boost long-term growth when she unveils her first Budget next month?
Paul Diggle, Chief Economist, returns from a summer break with his take on recent market volatility, how growth has replaced inflation as investors’ main concern and why the race for the White House just got more intense.
Macro Bytes returns after a summer break to discuss why the ‘Sahm rule’ isn’t a rule, why inflation has been more volatile and how what happens in Japan matters to global markets.
A soft landing is still the most likely destination for the US economy. But, with policy more clearly weighing on growth, we are increasing our recession probability.
Chinese data disappointed in July, with the economy expanding at a slow pace. Policymakers continue to take an incremental approach to easing, which is unlikely to spark a meaningful upturn in the economy in the near term.