1. Home
  2. Insights and Research
Global Macro Research
Politics

What would Harris do?

Kamala Harris has set out a more fiscally expansive and regulatory-heavy policy platform than Joe Biden, but the likelihood she will be able to implement it in full is slim. However, in response to her improved polling and new policy platform, we have updated our US election scenarios.

Authors
Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, abrdn
Lizzy Galbraith
Political Economist
James McCann
James McCann
Deputy Chief Economist

Duration: 1 Min

Date: Oct 01, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • The US election is effectively a toss-up. Harris leads in the polls, but Trump has advantages in the Electoral College, higher approval on the economy and polling errors in his favour. Our election scenarios show a 50% chance of either candidate winning. 
  • Harris has set out a more fiscally expansive policy platform than Biden, promising a package of tax credits. But she is also proposing higher corporation tax, and increased regulation on certain business practices. 
  • However, Harris would struggle to implement much of this agenda unless she got a unified Congress. But we think this is unlikely and give it just a 10% probability. 
  • Still, a Harris government with a divided Congress, which we see as a 40% probability, may be able to pass watered-down aspects of her agenda. Republican interest in child tax credit and immigration reform makes bipartisan agreement possible. 
  • We continue to think there are multiple potential versions of a Trump presidency, depending on the congressional outcome and his governing style. Crucially though, much of Trump’s trade agenda can be passed with executive orders. 
  • We assign a 25% probability to trade war, 15% to a market-friendly outcome involving tax cuts and deregulation, and a 10% probability to a potentially volatile scenario involving tax cuts, deregulation, protectionism, and the overt politicisation of monetary policy.

    Read the full article. 

Related articles

Global Macro Research6 min Watch

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - May 2025

How might new tariff developments impact the global economy? Paul Diggle provides his latest analysis to help you navigate the constantly shifting terrain.

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - May 2025
Global Macro Research30 min Listen

The end of US exceptionalism?

In our latest podcast, Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew consider whether US exceptionalism is over.

The end of US exceptionalism?
Global Macro Research1 min Read

Carney wins Canadian election amid tariff turmoil

US tariffs have significantly impacted the Canadian election held on Monday. The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, won over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But, despite the victory, the policy agenda will be constrained by the impacts of tariffs and a possible Canadian recession.

Carney wins Canadian election amid tariff turmoil
Global Macro Research1 min Read

China: waiting for the shock

The latest economic data give President Xi little reason to back down. That said, as the impact of the trade war becomes visible on both sides of the Pacific, we expect China and the US to come to the negotiating table.

China: waiting for the shock
Global Macro Research1 min Read

Tariffs: our latest analysis

Read our current thinking on tariffs here.

Tariffs: our latest analysis
View all articles
Risk warning

The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and an investor may get back less than the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

Contact us
Accessibility
Cookie policy
Legal and regulatory
Legal notice
Privacy
Security
Copyright © Aberdeen Group plc 2021-2025. All rights reserved.