The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the continuation of a war that many people thought would be short-lived.
The sustained rise in inflation expectations to a 40-year high, ending the hope that inflationary conditions would be ‘transitory’.
The turmoil in the UK gilts, or government bond, market following the country’s ‘mini budget’ in September that triggered a spike in long-term interest rates and havoc in pension funds that use a liability-driven investment approach.
An escalation in geopolitical tension between the United States and its allies, with China.
A global cost-of-living crisis with rising mortgage costs and unprecedented fiscal support measures for energy and food targeted at the most vulnerable in many countries.
A slowdown in, or reversal of, growth expectations with regards to key tech companies leading to a significant loss of shareholder value and job cuts.
氣候危機不確定因素
然而，與我們未能在將全球變暖控制於協定的1.5°C以內的目標上取得進展，導致生存威脅持續加劇而未見減弱相比，上述所有事件的影響將是相對短暫的（並且是可控的）。
今年在埃及舉行的氣候變化大會第27次締約方會議(COP 27)基本未能擴大一年前關於逐步淘汰化石燃料的承諾，儘管各方均就淘汰化石燃料的必要性發表了強有力的聲明。
該會議向前邁出的一大步是達成一項爭取逾30年的協議，即建立「損失與損害」基金，以支持最容易受到氣候變化後果影響的國家。但細節及資金支持尚未敲定。
全球發生更多極端天氣事件，特別是最近巴基斯坦的洪水，這些事件對受影響的經濟體產生重大影響，並造成移民海外人數持續而急劇上升的危機。
不要放棄
但是，俗話說，機遇與挑戰並存。
以下為我們發現機遇與挑戰之處：
- Tackling climate change, both in terms of mitigation and solution, will require trillions of dollars of investment each year for the next three decades at least;
Reconfiguring supply chains (to shorten and make them more secure);
Building security of energy and food supplies to rely less on a single supplier;
Replacing inefficient infrastructure for transportation, energy supply and distribution;
Funding the science and applied research needed to create the solutions not available today;
Rebuilding Ukraine.
樂觀的理由
所有這些不確定性很容易讓人不知所措。然而，我們已看到許多方面不斷取得進展，這或許是對抗悲觀情緒的良藥：
The investment industry is better equipped than ever to steward capital into productive assets that meet society’s expectations of it.
Policy makers are finally seeking to unblock obstacles that constrain investment flows from long-term savings pools into infrastructure and patient-capital science-based assets.
Industry leaders are, at last, prioritising capital investment over share buybacks, particularly in Europe.
Employment prospects are strong, particularly for younger workers as many older workers who were close to retirement brought plans forward during the pandemic.
Many of the big trends that have caused concern are forecast to improve in 2023 – the inflation and interest rate outlooks will likely moderate next year; fiscal conditions are expected to remain supportive with major elections scheduled in 2024; China is expected to gradually remove Covid restrictions and re-open its economy.
在經濟挑戰猶存的情況下，2023年對市場而言可能是關鍵一年。雖然上述事件顯然很重要，但我們亦不能忽視潛在的長期生存問題。
在本篇重新命名的投資展望中，我的同事Paul Diggle及Maximilien Macmillan解釋為何市場可能低估明年經濟衰退的嚴重程度，以及這對後續減息時機可能意味著甚麼。
Andrew Millington表示，股票投資者看好2023年股市。但即使市場試圖預測經濟復甦，明年股價仍面臨重大阻礙。
James Athey猜想2023年債券會東山再起，因為通脹得到遏制，貨幣政策再次放寬，且按相對價值計，固定收益資產具吸引力。