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Discover our latest thoughts on US tariff policies and their far-reaching effects on the global economy. How will tariffs shape international trade, growth, interest rates and geopolitics?
Learn about the new US administration's dollar dilemma. Can Trump weaken the dollar to support the US economy? And will he use the full array of tools at his disposal to achieve his economic goals?
Discover how the balance of forces acting on interest rates, known as r* shapes the future of the global economy and investment landscape.
We forecast India’s economy to slow moderately in 2025, meaning a modest rate cutting cycle by the Reserve Bank. However, recent rupee depreciation risks delaying rate cuts, particularly if this is further exacerbated by the policies of the new US administration. That said, we continue to think India is a potential winner from trade tensions between the US and China.
Chinese policymakers will have to wait for more clarity on the Trump administration’s trade policies. Encouragingly economic momentum picked up at the end of 2024, but it will still be hard to fully offset the drag from the upcoming trade war, even if policy is primed to deliver more stimulus.