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Markets are focusing on the reflationary aspects of Trump’s agenda. This has meant a stronger dollar, higher yields, US equites up, and oil lower. But these moves may evolve as different aspects of Trump’s economic agenda shift in and out of focus. Higher nominal GDP growth and higher-than-otherwise interest rates are the macro implications we are most confident about for now.
Join Macro Bytes to dissect the US election results, Trump's policy agenda and its market implications, with expert insights from the team
New fiscal rules, elevated taxes, higher government borrowing, and boosts to public expenditure. As financial markets assess these changes, discover our perspective on the UK budget and its potential impact on growth.
The Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition lost its majority in Sunday’s lower house elections. An expanded governing coalition or supply-and-confidence arrangement should not lead to major policy reversals, although fiscal policy may be looser. While domestic risks remain, the dominant market drivers will be the corporate reform story, US-Japan rate differentials, and the US election.
A look at how election results will have major implications for the emerging market outlook, affecting both the future economic backdrop and geopolitical landscape.