The global interest-rate cutting cycle will broaden. The US Federal Reserve is almost certain to start cutting this month, while the Bank of England and European Central Bank will deliver more rate cuts before year-end. The Bank of Japan is the exception with more hikes expected.

Inflation in many major economies is returning to central-bank targets. Policymakers appear increasingly confident they have pushed the inflation genie back into the bottle. In fact, concerns about growth have replaced inflation as the key risk.

Despite recent market volatility, we’re still expecting a ‘soft landing’ for the US economy – the risk of recession appears low as US growth remains fairly healthy. Rising unemployment has been driven by new entrants into the workforce rather than job cuts.

China’s economy continues to struggle amid weak demand. Its 5% growth target for the year may start to slip out of reach without more aggressive policy support.

The outcome of the US presidential election has become more uncertain since Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up to fight off Donald Trump’s challenge.