Key Takeaways 

  • Resilience and fragmentation were the major themes

    at this year's IMF annual meetings.

  • It was however not just a case of 'US exceptionalism'.

    Aside from China – which presenters sometimes

    competed to be the most pessimistic on – resilience

    was remarked on all the way across the DM-EM


  • Higher for longer' dominated central bank

    communications and was judged to be a key

    component contributing to the recent rise in yields.

  • Fiscal largesse (primarily the US's) was also a

    prominent topic – one that was not discussed at the

    IMF Spring meetings. Bond vigilantes may eventually

    force a government adjustment, but few thought

    governments would self-correct.

  • Deglobalisation pressures and reshoring were also top

    of mind. The dollar's position is not under threat, but

    trade flows and shifting production locations were

    thought to be evidence of fragmentation. China's

    success in electric vehicle manufacturing is regarded

    as good for the environment but expected to be the

    next front in global trade tensions.

  • AI's potential impact on productivity and geopolitical

    tensions was explored, with experts urging caution in

    implementation and integration and an immediate

    boost to productivity considered unlikely.


    Read the full article.