Insights and research
The expert opinion and research driving our investment decisions.
Just Transition: 4 things investors can do to ensure society isn’t shortchanged in the transition to net zero
Our latest climate research paper shows why a ‘just transition’ matters, highlighting actions that companies, governments and investors need to take to make it happen.
SFDR: are articles 8 and 9 fit for purpose?
The European Commission is reviewing the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation. What could this mean for investors?
Emerging market debt October 2023 review and outlook
Our summary of developments in emerging market debt in October 2023 and the outlook going forward.
The AI revolution - a new era for emerging markets
Pruksa Iamthongthong discusses the benefit of the AI revolution on emerging markets.
Celebrating 10 years in frontier bonds: a manager's insights
What’ve we learned over the last decade? And where do we think the market is heading? Find out here.
Aligning the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with business strategy
How can an effective business strategy help meet the 2030 SDGs?
10 years in EM local currency debt: what have we learned?
Kieran Curtis, Investment Director, shares his insights from an eventful decade. He also looks to the future of the asset class.
Global Macro Research
US recession risk: What do quantitative models say?
The benign loosening in the US labour market increases the probability of a soft landing. But, on balance, we think this dynamic can’t continue forever. Our quantitative recession risk framework continues to suggest high risks in the medium term, as do signals from the yield curve and leading economic indicators.
How resilient are DM consumers?
The resilience of developed market consumption has been a key factor extending this cycle. Resilience should wane in the second half of the year, but some economies are more vulnerable than others.
Macro Bytes: Is the UK 'stagflation nation'?
In this episode of the podcast Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the UK economy.
Should we expect divided US government after 2024?
Should President Biden be re-elected, historical precedent and current polling suggest he is unlikely to benefit from a Democrat-controlled Congress. This will impact his ability to implement his legislative agenda. In Trump’s case, there is no modern precedent for non-consecutive presidential terms, but his down-ticket effect will likely be weaker than usual.
Canadian outlook: stronger growth, stickier inflation
Resilient Canadian consumers will keep growth stronger, inflation stickier, and policy tighter in the coming months. But the central bank’s hiking cycle should eventually tip the economy into recession by the turn of the year.
Bank of Japan delivers a "flexible" YCC tweak
The BoJ voted to maintain the official yield curve control (YCC) settings, but with a greater degree of flexibility that essentially widens the trading band to +/-1%.
How China's tailwinds are turning into headwinds
Official data confirmed that GDP growth lost its reopening tailwind. Policy makers will ease but are at risk of doing too little too late.