Insights and research
The expert opinion and research driving our investment decisions.
Emerging markets income equity: taking Kazakhstan into the 21st century with Kaspi
Technology platform Kaspi has created a revolutionary super app with scale and substance.
Emerging markets income equity: can Korea's KSOE deliver sustainable dividends?
KSOE investors could be en route to income as the shipbuilder cuts carbon for cargo clients.
Emerging markets income equity: Bajaj Holdings and India’s rise as consumer nations
Domestic population trends are helping to fuel this vehicle and finance company's business
On the road: Cote d’Ivoire – the darling of West Africa?
Leo Morawiecki, Associate Investment Specialist, shares his findings from a recent trip to this vibrant nation.
Asia-Pacific real estate market outlook Q1 2024
Slowing growth, moderating inflation, and falling interest rates are likely to be dominant near-term themes for Asia-Pacific real estate. Read more about our outlook and the key opportunities for investors.
UK real estate market outlook Q1 2024
UK inflation is set to fall further over the next few months and interest-rate cuts are expected around the summer
Global Macro Research
Macro Bytes: Will the last mile of inflation be the hardest?
In this episode, we discuss the rising US inflation in January and the challenges of bringing inflation back to the target.
US election 2024: Is it still “the economy, stupid”?
Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for president and leads Biden in early head-to-head polls nationally and in swing states. Biden’s approval ratings have been harmed by high inflation but easing price growth and a still solid economy could help his re-election prospects if sentiment improves.
The Monthly Macro Outlook Video: Key political calls for 2024.
Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, looks ahead to a year of important elections.
Macro Bytes: What's been holding the German economy back?
The Eurozone economy is stagnating and the German economy in particular is facing significant cyclical and structural headwinds. We discuss why.
Macro Bytes: What's at stake in 2024's many elections?
As a majority of the global population head to the polls this year, in this episode of the podcast we discuss what's at stake for economies and markets.
The Bank of Japan hopes for a virtuous cycle
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept policy unchanged and signalled cautious optimism over price and wage growth. We expect it to wait for clarity from the next Shunto before removing yield curve control (YCC) and negative interest rates (NIRP).
China's lacklustre growth set to Drag-on
Q4 GDP and December’s monthly data still imply activity has firmed from the summer trough. But real estate continues to pose a major challenge to 2024 growth. Markets may also be sensitive to the upcoming US election, implying a high bar for the return of animal spirits.
Middle East crisis: Transmission channel shifts to shipping
The spillover of the Israel-Hamas conflict into attacks on Red Sea shipping has led to a meaningful increase in maritime transit costs. However, our updated scenario analysis suggests this shouldn’t derail global disinflation, although it may stay the hand of central banks in the very near term.