Global Macro Research
Macroeconomics

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video June 2025

What’s driving the latest surge in US deficit projections? Lizzy Galbraith highlights the fiscal and trade policy shifts that could reshape the global economic outlook.

Author
Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, abrdn
Senior Political Economist

Duration: 3 Mins

Date: 13 Jun 2025

US fiscal and trade policy are once again in the spotlight — and the implications could be far-reaching. In this month’s video, Lizzy Galbraith explores how a major new bill and evolving tariff strategies could force yet another rethink on growth, inflation and markets. 

Key highlights:
 
  • One Big Beautiful Bill Act. What’s in the sweeping US fiscal package, and how might it push the fiscal deficit above 7% of GDP within 24 months?
  • Tariff trends. Why the average US tariff rate could rise — and what legal battles may shape future US trade policy?
  • Policy tools in play. Even if one key tariff power is struck down by the courts, Donald Trump still has multiple levers to pull.
  • Risks to the outlook. From tax-cut extensions to sector-specific support, what could widen the budget deficit even further?
Watch the video for more details.

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