Insights and research
The expert opinion and research driving our investment decisions.
The value of short-dated credit under various scenarios
‘Soft landing’, ‘hard landing’ or interest rates ‘higher-for-longer': which do we think is most likely and what could it mean for short-dated credit?
Misperceptions may be masking a golden opportunity in China
We explain why now offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity for investors to buy quality Chinese companies at bargain prices.
Confessions of a frontier bond fund manager: why I'm bullish on Nigeria
Kevin Daly explains why improved policymaking under the new government should be positive for Nigerian bonds.
Asia: Leading the way
Why centrality for some leading global growth themes should help support Asia's sizeable contributions to global growth.
Five reasons to invest in China: Health
The investment opportunities in China’s healthcare sector are huge. But where to look?
Five reasons to invest in China: Digital
From e-commerce and social media, to fintech and healthcare, a look at how China has become a formidable digital player.
Five reasons to invest in China: Green
A look at how China is becoming a global leader in their aim to reach zero carbon emissions by 2060.
Global Macro Research
Is the US economy bending, breaking or broken?
The US economy is proving resilient, but we continue to expect rapid monetary tightening to trigger a recession later this year. Recent banking turmoil will lead to tighter credit conditions, adding to headwinds. Although we don’t expect a systemic financial crisis, we highlight key waymarks to monitor the risk of a more acute credit crisis.
How much further will the Fed hike rates?
The direct spillover effects of banking sector turmoil and the information it provides about the lagged effects of past tightening mean we have reduced our forecast for the terminal policy rate.
Inflation watch: reopening, recession and oil
Following the fall in commodity prices amid financial sector volatility, China’s reopening and still-strong US activity may provide a supportive backdrop for prices over the coming months.
China enjoys a strong start to 2023 and policy remains key
Rebounding consumption is consistent with our above-consensus growth call and the unexpected property surge adds further upside.
Innovation: what are the habits of successful innovators?
In the second instalment of our Innovation Superstars series, we analyse millions of datapoints to better understand the similarities that the most innovative US companies share.
Recession looms over the US despite market optimism
Markets are increasingly pricing in a soft landing for the US economy. But we remain sceptical. Broad measures of wage growth have not softened sufficiently, and underlying inflation pressures remain elevated.
China: rules for business vs the business of ruling
Recession is coming. Economic shocks that once looked like separate headwinds emanating from different places at different times, are now coming together into a perfect storm for the global economy. Read on to find out more…
Demographics – Emerging markets forge their own destiny
Bob Gilhooly thinks demography is only one factor that will determine the economic vitality of emerging markets.How emerging markets develop will affect everyone via inflation and interest rates. Read on to find out more…