Individual

For people managing their own savings and investments.

Financial advisors and wealth managers

For people managing savings and/or investments on behalf of someone else.

Institutional

For pension schemes, insurers, charities, universities, family offices and treasurers.

Change country site
  1. Homepage
  2. Insights & Research

Several industrial commodities have had price declines this year. There was significant speculation last year at this time of an industrial activity boom as China exited “zero Covid” policies at the end of November 2022.1

This action led to higher commodity prices in expectation of a demand ramp up in early 2023 after a China reopening.2

  • Copper prices hit $9,356 per ton on January 23 and are now 12.98% lower at $8,142
  • Aluminum prices hit $2,658.50 per ton on January 25th, and are now 15.65% lower at $2,242.50
  • Nickel prices hit 31,118 per ton on January 3 and are now 42.76% lower at $17,813
  • Zinc prices hit $3486.50 per ton on January 26 and are now 25.35% lower at $2602.50 

The ramp up in metals demand did not meet expectations due to a combination of factors – including the Chinese New Year holiday when the country's factories shut down from January 21–27; a delayed return to regular activity by Chinese citizens; and lingering tight fiscal, energy and monetary policy – which constrained the economy. Additionally, droughts in China have restricted hydroelectric power generation and disproportionately constrained industrial activity in Yunnan province.3

Despite the disappointments, there have been bright spots for commodity investors as Chinese commodity demand is increasingly driven by the energy transition and exports rather than the domestic property market.

China's solar power exports were up 34% in 1H 2023,4 after growing 64% in 2022.5 Strong solar panel exports are interesting, given the price of silver used in solar panel manufacturing.

Silver closed at $22.84 an ounce on October 31, 2023.6 That is below the AISC7 cost of some miners of $29 an ounce.8

China NEV, or new energy vehicle (primarily battery-powered) exports to the EU were up 112% y/y through the first seven months of 2023.9

The International Monetary Fund10 earlier this month increased Chinese GDP11 growth estimates to 5.4%, up from 5.0%, and they also raised 2024 estimates to 4.6% from 4.2%.

The cause of the revision is China's recent decision to approve a 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign bond issue and allow local governments to front-load part of their 2024 bond quotas to support economic growth.12

The combination of price declines in metals markets from lofty levels in January, along with forecasts of higher growth in China, may present an opportunity for investors.

1 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/china-eases-zero-covid-rules-after-wide-protests-of-lockdowns
2 All data via Bloomberg, current price as of November 9, 2023.
3 https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/022723-prolonged-drought-in-chinas-yunnan-province-likely-to-worsen-hydropower-shortage
4 https://electrek.co/2023/09/13/solar-panel-exports-are-breaking-records-now-lets-install-them/
5 https://www.rigzone.com/news/china_solar_exports_grow_to_52b-26-may-2023-172877-article/
6 Bloomberg data as of October 31, 2023.
7 All-In Sustaining Costs = Cash Costs (including by-product credits) + Sustaining Capital + Exploration expenses + General & Administration expenses
8 https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-11-07/Endeavour-Silver-s-net-loss-widens-in-challenging-third-quarter.html
9 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-is-driving-chinese-ev-exports-their-price-competitiveness-2023-09-14

10 A major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution funded by 190 member countries, headquartered in Washington DC. It is regarded as the lender of last resort to national governments and a leading supporter of exchange rate stability.
11  A monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a time period by a country.
12 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/imf-upgrades-chinas-2023-2024-gdp-growth-forecasts-2023-11-07/

Important information

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Trading in commodities entails a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

Prospectuses for abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF, abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF, abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF, abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF

Projections are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance.

Projections are not guaranteed, and actual events or results may differ materially.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent.

There are risks associated with investing including possible loss of principal.

ALPS is not affiliated with abrdn.

ETF002112 11/20/24
AA-141123-170843-1

Recent articles

Insights8 min Read

Tax-loss harvesting

We look at possible solutions for investors to make prudent use of unrealized losses to lower their tax liabilities.

Tax-loss harvesting
Insights9 min Read

Commodities: Are we there yet?

A look at how the resolution of US policy uncertainty and China’s decisive new stimulus package could boost local businesses and drive silver demand.

Commodities: Are we there yet?
Insights16 min Read

Commodities and ETFs: A new era of accessible investing

In an evolving landscape of investment options, we explore commodities and the potential advantages an ETF structure may offer commodity investors.

Commodities and ETFs: A new era of accessible investing
Insights6 min Read

Gold: What record highs reveal about geopolitics, markets, and economies

A look at the underlying factors driving the unprecedented demand for gold. Gain insights into the forces behind the surge in gold prices and understand the dynamics at play in this market.

Gold: What record highs reveal about geopolitics, markets, and economies
Insights10 min Read

Long contrarian commodities and short election trades

Amid the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election and the extreme sentiment in commodity markets, investors may find more clarity and confidence by focusing on contrarian opportunities in commodities.

Long contrarian commodities and short election trades
View all articles
abrdn investments
Contact us and support
Accessibility
Cookie policy
Legal and regulatory
Legal notice
Privacy
SecurityOpens in new window
FINRA Broker Check (open in a new window)Opens in new window
Copyright © abrdn plc. All rights reserved.
Investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, fees, charges, and expenses before investing any money. To obtain this and other fund information, please call 866-667-9231 to request a summary prospectus and/or prospectus, or download at www.abrdn.com/us. Please read the summary prospectus and/or prospectus carefully before investing any money.

Aberdeen Fund Distributors, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of abrdn Inc. abrdn Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of abrdn plc. abrdn Funds are distributed by Aberdeen Fund Distributors LLC, Member FINRA and SIPC. 1900 Market Street, Suite 200, Philadelphia PA, 19103.

NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

For ETFs, please call 844-383-7289 or click here to access a prospectus online. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ETF shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund.

Important Risks

The abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust and abrdn Palladium ETF Trust are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.

The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:

A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently, its price and the price of the Shares;

Investors’ expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;

Currency exchange rates;

Interest rates;

Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and

Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.

Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices, negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts’ physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen. Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the Trusts.

The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s precious metal that is not covered by insurance.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or "authorized participants" may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 25k to 100k shares.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the prospectus. Carefully consider each Trust’s investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please click here to review the prospectus.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for the abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust and abrdn Palladium ETF Trust.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the distributor for abrdn ETFs.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is not affiliated with the companies of abrdn.

'40 Act Fund Disclosure:

An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the ETFs carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, call 1-844-383-7289 or visit www.abrdn.com/us/etf. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Fund Risk: There are risks associated with investing including possible loss of principal. Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. There can be no assurance that the Fund’s investment objective will be met at any time. The commodities markets and the prices of various commodities may fluctuate widely based on a variety of factors. Because the Fund's performance is linked to the performance of highly volatile commodities, investors should consider purchasing shares of the Fund only as part of an overall diversified portfolio and should be willing to assume the risks of potentially significant fluctuations in the value of the Fund. Actively managed ETFs do not necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks, including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. The Fund’s return may not match the return of the index.

Through holding of futures, options and options on futures contracts, the Fund may be exposed to (i) losses from margin deposits in the case of bankruptcy of the relevant broker, and (ii) a risk that the relevant position cannot be close out when required at its fundamental value. In pursuing its investment strategy, particularly when rolling futures contracts, the Fund may engage in frequent trading of its portfolio of securities, resulting in a high portfolio turnover rate.
As a "non-diversified" fund, the Fund may hold a smaller number of portfolio securities than many other funds. To the extent the Fund invests in a relatively small number of issuers, a decline in the market value of a particular security held by the Fund may affect its value more than if it invested in a larger number of issuers. The value of Shares may be more volatile than the values of shares of more diversified funds.

During situations where the cost of any futures contracts for delivery on dates further in the future is higher than those for delivery closer in time, the value of the Fund holding such contracts will decrease over time unless the spot price of that contract increases by the same rate as the rate of the variation in the price of the futures contract. The rate of variation could be quite significant and last for an indeterminate period of time, reducing the value of the Fund.

Changes in the laws of the United States and/or the Cayman Islands, under which the Fund and the Subsidiary are organized, respectively, could result in the inability of the Subsidiary to operate as intended and could negatively affect the Fund and its shareholders.

To the extent the Fund is exposed directly or indirectly to leverage (through investments in commodities futures contracts) the value of that Fund may be more volatile than if no leverage were present.

In order to qualify for the favorable U.S. federal income tax treatment accorded to a regulated investment company ("RIC"), the Fund must derive at least 90% of its gross income in each taxable year from certain categories of income ("qualifying income") and must satisfy certain asset diversification requirements. Certain of the Fund’s investments will not generate income that is qualifying income. The Fund intends to hold such commodity-related investments indirectly, through the Subsidiary. The Fund believes that income from the Subsidiary will be qualifying income because it expects that the Subsidiary will make annual distributions of its earnings and profits. [However, there can be no certainty in this regard, as the Fund has not sought or received an opinion of counsel confirming that the Subsidiary’s operations and resulting distributions would produce qualifying income for the Fund.] If the Fund were to fail to meet the qualifying income test or asset diversification requirements and fail to qualify as a RIC, it would be taxed in the same manner as an ordinary corporation, and distributions to its shareholders would not be deductible by the Fund in computing its taxable income. Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from the Trust). Only market makers or authorized participants may trade directly with the funds, typically in blocks of 25K to 100K shares.

The abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF is new and has limited operating history.

“Bloomberg®” and “Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM,” “Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month ForwardSM” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total ReturnSM” are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC. Bloomberg is not affiliated with abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCI), abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCD), and abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF (BCIM). Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total Return".

Please see the current prospectus, www.abrdn.com/us/etf for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment in the Funds.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s composite index of 500 stocks, a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices.

Standard Deviation: Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the extent to which returns of an asset vary from its average.

Bloomberg Commodity Index: The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes.

Discount- A situation when the share price of a fund trades below its net asset value.

Premium- A situation when the share price of a fund trades above its net asset value.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.

Annualized Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index

Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of an individual stock in comparison to the unsystematic risk of the entire market

Sharpe ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk
NAV or Net Asset Value represents the per share/unit price of the fund on a specific date or time.

All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments. It is not our intention to state, indicate or imply in any manner that current or past results are indicative of future profitability or expectations. As with all investments there are associated inherent risks. Please obtain and review all financial material carefully before investing.

abrdn offers a variety of products and services intended solely for investors from certain countries or regions. abrdn does not offer these products or services outside their intended countries or regions. Your country of legal residence will determine the products or services that will be available to you. Nothing on this website should be considered a solicitation or offering for sale of any investment product or service to any person in any jurisdiction where such solicitation or offer would be unlawful.

Persons residing outside the United States are invited to visit our global website for more information about products and services available to non-U.S. investors.

Alternative investments involve specific risks that may be greater than those associated with traditional investments; are not suitable for all clients; and intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who meet specific suitability requirements and are willing to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investments of this type may engage in speculative investment practices; carry additional risk of loss, including possibility of partial or total loss of invested capital, due to the nature and volatility of the underlying investments; and are generally considered to be illiquid due to restrictive repurchase procedures. These investments may also involve different regulatory and reporting requirements, complex tax structures, and delays in distributing important tax information.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

Among the risks presented by private equity investing are substantial commitment requirements, credit risk, lack of liquidity, fees associated with investing, lack of control over investments and or governance, investment risks, leverage and tax considerations. Private equity investments can also be affected by environmental conditions / events, political and economic developments, taxes and other government regulations

Property investments may carry additional risk of loss due to the nature and volatility of the underlying investments and may not be available for investment by investors unless the investor meets certain regulatory requirements. In considering the prior performance information contained herein, potential investors should bear in mind that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that such investments will achieve comparable results.


UNITED STATES RESIDENTS

The purpose of this website is to provide general information about the US-registered investment advisers which are part of abrdn, and the strategies they manage. The information provided is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there can be no guarantee as to the accuracy of market forecasts. Opinions, estimates, and forecasts may be changed without notice. This site does not provide financial or investment advice and does not take into account the particular financial circumstances of individual investors. Before investing, investors should seek their own professional advice. The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only, and do not constitute specific tax, legal, or investment advice to, or recommendations for, any person. We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor, accountant, or attorney with regard to your specific situation.

In the United States, abrdn is the marketing name for the following affiliated, registered investment advisers: abrdn Inc., abrdn Investments Limited, and abrdn Asia Limited.


Privacy and Cookies Policy

The attention of users is drawn to abrdn’s Privacy and Cookies Policy which includes details on the use of performance, identification and targeting cookies (both our own and third parties) to enhance the functionality of the web-site, to enable the Group to monitor usage and to assist with future communications. By continuing to use this site users will be deemed to have accepted this policy and the use of cookies for these limited purposes only.


Business Continuity Management & Disaster Recovery Programs

Copyright

Copyright of this material is owned by abrdn. It may be printed or downloaded for personal use only. abrdn expressly prohibits the dissemination, reproduction or transmission of any of the contents of this site in any form, other than for personal use.

The information contained in this website does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation to apply for securities in any jurisdiction where such an offer or invitation is unlawful, or in which the person making such an offer is not qualified to do so.

As a convenience to our users, some of the documents on this website may contain links to information created and maintained by other, unaffiliated organizations. abrdn does not control, cannot guarantee, and is not responsible for the accuracy, timeliness, or even the continued availability or existence of this outside information.

There are important legal and regulatory restrictions which you were advised to read before proceeding. By reviewing this information, you are representing that you have understood and accepted the restrictions and terms herein.