1. Homepage
  2. Insights & Research
Global Macro Research
Macro Bytes

Tariff man strikes back, or the phantom trade war?

Hosts Paul and Luke provide their thoughts on US tariff policies and their far-reaching effects on the global economy. How will tariffs shape international trade, growth, interest rates, and geopolitics?

Authors
Paul Diggle
Paul Diggle
Chief Economist
Luke Bartholomew
Luke Bartholomew
Deputy Chief Economist
Contributors
Lizzy Galbraith, James McCann, Robert Gilhooly
Macro Bytes: Tariff man strikes back, or the phantom trade war?

Duration: 35 Mins

Date: Feb 12, 2025

"[The US] has a very large stick to wield in these [trade] negotiations. But the trouble with wielding that stick is that you can hurt yourself at times by doing so."

Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China.

Macro Bytes hosts Paul and Luke discuss with abrdn’s economics experts Lizzy Galbraith, James McCann, and Bob Gilhooly the rationale behind Donald Trump's tariff strategy, its economic and monetary impact, and Trump’s broader agenda.

Tune in to listen to Macro Bytes on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Important information

This podcast is provided for general information only and assumes a certain level of knowledge of financial markets. It is provided for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer, investment recommendation, or solicitation to deal in any of the investments or products mentioned herein and does not constitute investment research.
The views in this podcast are those of the contributors at the time of publication and do not necessarily reflect those of abrdn.

AA-100225-189164-1

Related articles

Global Macro Research5 min Read

US-Japan trade talks: A road map

A look at why Japan's negotiating stance with the US on tariffs has gradually become firmer, potentially emboldened by recent developments in US-China negotiations.

US-Japan trade talks: A road map
Global Macro Research30 min Listen

The end of US exceptionalism?

In our latest podcast, hosts Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether US exceptionalism is truly over.

The end of US exceptionalism?
Global Macro Research2 min Read

Bank of Japan: Trade fog weighs on outlook

Despite a strong shuntō wage round, a look at how geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and trade tango have outweighed Japan's domestic developments for now.

Bank of Japan: Trade fog weighs on outlook
Global Macro Research6 min Read

How tariffs shift the economic outlook

A look at how recent tariffs announced by President Trump are reshaping the global economic outlook, what this could mean for future trade dynamics, and if a stagflationary shock is heading investors' way.

How tariffs shift the economic outlook
Global Macro Research28 min Listen

How high could tariffs go?

In the latest episode, hosts Paul and Luke discuss Trump's bombshell tariff announcements and the potential economic impact on inflation, growth, and global trade.

How high could tariffs go?
View all articles
Contact us and support
Accessibility
Cookie policy
Legal and regulatory
Legal notice
Privacy
SecurityOpens in new window
FINRA Broker Check (open in a new window)Opens in new window
Copyright © Aberdeen Group plc 2021-2025. All rights reserved.

Open-end Mutual Funds and ETF Disclosure:

INFORMATION REGARDING MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFS: Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, fees, charges, and expenses of a mutual fund or ETF before investing. The summary and full prospectuses contain this and other information about the mutual fund or ETF and should be read carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for the Mutual Funds, contact Aberdeen Fund Distributors, LLC at 1-866-667-9231 or download it from this site. To obtain a prospectus for the ETFs, contact Aberdeen Investments at 1-844-383-7289 or download it from this site.

Investing in mutual funds and ETFs involves risk, including possible loss of principal. There is no assurance that the investment objective of any fund will be achieved.  ETF shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund.  As a result, an investor may pay more than net asset value when buying and receive less than net asset value when selling. In addition, brokerage commissions will reduce returns. Fund shares are not individually redeemable directly with the Fund but blocks of shares may be acquired from the Fund and tendered for redemption to the Fund by certain institutional investors in Creation Units.

Aberdeen Investments Global is the trade name of Aberdeen's investments business, herein referred to as "Aberdeen Investments" or "Aberdeen". In the United States, Aberdeen Investments refers to the following affiliated, registered investment advisers: abrdn Inc., abrdn Investments Limited, and abrdn Asia Limited. abrdn Inc. has been registered as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 since August 23, 1995.

Aberdeen Fund Distributors, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of abrdn Inc. abrdn Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aberdeen Group plc. abrdn’s mutual funds are distributed by Aberdeen Fund Distributors LLC, Member FINRA and SIPC. 1900 Market Street, Suite 200, Philadelphia PA, 19103. 

Aberdeen Investment's exchange-traded funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. ALPS is not affiliated with Aberdeen Investments.

1940 Act Commodity ETF Disclosure: Bloomberg®, Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward Total ReturnSM and Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total ReturnSM are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by abrdn Inc. Bloomberg is not affiliated with abrdn Inc., and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 abrdn Inc, abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 abrdn Inc and abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 abrdn Inc. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward Total ReturnSM and Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total ReturnSM.

NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

1933 Act Fund ETF Disclosure:

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust, abrdn Palladium ETF Trust and abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts.

Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or “authorized participants” may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50,000 to 100,000 shares. Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

This material must be accompanied or preceded by the prospectus. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses of each Trust before investing. To view the prospectus, please click here – abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust, abrdn Palladium ETF Trust and abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust, abrdn Palladium ETF Trust and abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust. 

Closed-end Funds Disclosure

Closed-end funds are traded on the secondary market through one of the stock exchanges. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares may be worth more or less than the original cost. Shares of closed-end funds may trade above (a premium) or below (a discount) the net asset value (NAV) of the fund’s portfolio. NAV return data includes investment management fees, custodial charges and administrative fees (such as Director and legal fees) and assumes the reinvestment of all distributions. Returns for periods less than one year are not annualized. There is no assurance any Fund will achieve its investment objective. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

International investing entails special risk considerations, including currency fluctuations, lower liquidity, economic and political risks, and differences in accounting methods. These risks are generally heightened for emerging market investments. Foreign securities are more volatile, harder to price and less liquid than U.S. securities.

There are also risks associated with international investing, including the risk of investing in a single-country Fund. Concentrating investments in a single region region subjects the Fund to more volatility and greater risk of loss than geographically diverse funds.

Equity stocks of small and mid-cap companies carry greater risk, and more volatility than equity stocks of larger, more established companies.

Dividends are not guaranteed and a company’s future ability to pay dividends may be limited. The use of leverage will also increase market exposure and magnify risk.

Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including, but not limited to: interest rate (changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment), credit (changes in the financial condition of the issuer, borrower, counterparty, or underlying collateral), prepayment (debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated), and extension (principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated, causing the expected maturity of a security to increase).

Because the real estate funds concentrate their investments in the real estate industry, the portfolio may experience more volatility and be exposed to greater risk than the portfolios of many other mutual funds. Risks associated with investment in securities of companies in the real estate industry may include: declines in the value of real estate, overbuilding and increased competition; increases in property taxes and operating expenses; changes in zoning laws; casualty or condemnation losses; variations in rental income, neighborhood values, changes in interest rates and changes in economic conditions.

Infrastructure-related issuers may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business or operations, including high interest costs in connection with capital construction programs, high leverage, costs associated with environmental and other regulations, the effects of economic slowdown, surplus capacity, increased competition from other providers of services, uncertainties concerning the availability of fuel at reasonable prices, the effects of energy conservation policies and other factors.

The Fund’s investments in private companies may be subject to higher risk than investments in securities of public companies.

Investments in HQH, THQ, HQL, and THW may be subject to additional risks including limited operating history, security selection, concentration in the healthcare industries, pharmaceuticals sector, biotechnology industry, managed care sector, life science and tool industry, healthcare technology sector, healthcare services sector, healthcare supplies sector, healthcare facilities sector, healthcare equipment sector, healthcare distributors sector, healthcare REIT, interest rate, credit/default, non-investment grade securities, key personnel, discount to NAV, anti-takeover provisions, related party transactions, non-diversification, government intervention, market disruption, geopolitical, and potential conflicts of interest.

As of 9/30/2023, Tekla Capital Management LLC was the Fund’s investment manager. Effective immediately after the market close on 10/27/2023, abrdn Inc. became the Fund’s investment manager. Destra Capital Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor, is providing secondary market servicing for the Fund

The Market Price is the current price at which an asset can be bought or sold. There is no assurance that the Fund will achieve its investment objective. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Please see the Fund’s most recent annual report for more information on risks applicable to the Fund.