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HomepageInsights & ResearchThe case for broad commodities

What are commodities?

There are many types of commodities, each with different functions and properties. In Table 1, we examine some of the different types of commodities that make up the Bloomberg Commodities Index,1 which represents the broad commodities market. The index includes six unique sectors and 23 individual commodities.

Table 1: Types of commodities

Why consider commodities?

Broad commodities could be attractive to investors for several reasons.

  • Potential portfolio diversification and risk management – commodities tend to have a low correlation with other asset classes, so they can help balance against the types of risks associated with equity and fixed income investments.
  • Intra-asset-class diversification – broad commodities investment doesn’t rely on any single commodity. Remember that the Bloomberg Commodity Index, for example, is diversified across several sectors and many different individual types of commodities.
  • More inflation resistant – commodities tend to thrive in inflationary periods, so they may offer an alternative inflation hedge to equities and fixed income, which tend to represent the majority holdings of a typical investment portfolio.

This third benefit could be especially timely considering the current US inflationary environment. Inflation has been high and rising for several months, thanks to pandemic-induced supply shocks, raw material nationalism, structural increases in demand for renewable energy metals, a decline in fossil fuel supply and, partially because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and resultant sanctions against Russia. While the US Federal Reserve has, and will continue to, implement interest-rate hikes in a bid to bring down inflation, it won’t disappear overnight.

When considering commodities, it’s also important to remember the risks. Supply and demand relationships with commodities may be impacted by weather, agriculture, currency movements, trade, changes in interest rates, technological developments, and political and economic events.

Overall, however, we think commodities have unique properties that make them a potentially attractive investment opportunity. And, on top of this, there are several relevant themes that could make them stand out today.

Themes that impact commodities markets

There are five important themes right now that create disruptions and opportunities in different sectors of the commodities market — the pandemic; capital access; global weather; environmental, social and governance (ESG); and Modern Monetary Theory2 (MMT).

Energy

  • Pandemic: Covid-19 disrupted this sector across the board as the rapid shutdown of mobility and subsequent reopening occurred at a rate in excess of the industry’s capacity to respond.
  • Capital access: investors have restricted capital access to this sector, which constrains the growth of supply and has reduced the global oil inventory, and spare production capacity.
  • Global weather: extreme weather lowered hydroelectric and wind power generation and the risk remains until more progress is made on climate change mitigation.
  • ESG: ESG policies could also disrupt this sector depending on whether they reduce demand for oil (from electric vehicle (EV) substitutions) more quickly than government policies discourage oil production.
  • MMT: no impact at this time, however several countries are discussing large consumer handouts to offset higher fuel costs (increasing demand) and more are considering large subsidies for EV purchases.

Grains

  • Pandemic: no impact.
  • Capital access: no impact.
  • Global weather: as major weather events become more common amid global climate change, they have the potential to disrupt supply in this sector. For example, at the time of writing, agriculture prices are near the 2011-12 highs as back-to-back years of La Niña3 (drought) conditions persist.
  • ESG: more than 40% of the US corn crop is used to produce ethanol, and biofuels are a growth industry that can increase the demand for grains. Also, the push for non-chemical pesticides can lower crop yields in developing countries.
  • MMT: no impact.

Precious metals

  • Pandemic: Covid-19-related restrictions impacted both the gold and silver markets. For example, on one hand, demand for these precious metals took a hit as festivals and weddings that traditionally call for them were postponed or called off amid lockdowns. On the other hand, in light of volatility and uncertainty, demand for gold and silver increased since some investors may see these precious metals as a “haven” type of asset.
  • Capital access: there are also capital access pressures on mining companies, which constrains the growth of supply.
  • Global weather: no impact.
  • ESG: silver is a key component in many batteries and photovoltaics, which is used to make solar panels. This theme also suggests opportunities for platinum, an important part of EV construction, and palladium, which is commonly used in automobile pollution-abatement technologies. Note that platinum and palladium are currently not in the Bloomberg Commodity index.
  • MMT: the creation of money via MMT dilutes the value of that money, which can cause inflation and raise the price of gold.

Industrial metals

  • Pandemic: the Covid-19 crisis impacted all of the industrial metals early on, as manufacturers demanded less metals while they were closed and via lower metal supply as the mines shut.
  • Capital access: there are also capital access issues with mining companies, which constrains the growth of supply.
  • Global weather: no impact.
  • ESG: transitioning toward less-fossil-fuel-dependent energy creates massive demand for copper, aluminum, nickel and zinc all of which are critical components of renewable technologies, such as EVs, wind turbines, solar panels.
  • MMT: as large stimulus packages were given to consumers, they shifted demand away from services toward goods, in particular durable goods which are more metals intense.

Softs

  • Pandemic: the pandemic impacted sugar, coffee and cotton by changing consumption trends. All three saw demand drop as large portions of the globe purchased less due to working from home.
  • Capital access: no impact.
  • Global weather: changes in global weather patterns and major weather events can disrupt the production and distribution of both sugar and coffee.
  • ESG: no impact.
  • MMT: no impact.

Livestock

  • Pandemic: for a period of time meat processors were severely understaffed due to the virus.
  • Capital access: no impact.
  • Global weather: disruptive weather patterns can raise animal feedstock prices causing ranchers to artificially reduce their herd.
  • ESG: similar to oil, ESG policies may constrain supply. The extent that ESG reduces supply by a different amount than it reduces demand can impact price.
  • MMT: no impact.

Are commodities poised for a comeback?

As the chart below shows, compared to core asset classes, broad commodities had been out of favor for the decade preceding the pandemic. However, during that time, very little was invested in future production, leaving large portions of fossil fuel and mining industry incapable of responding quickly to increases in demand.

Additionally, with major themes of raw material nationalism and increasingly volatile global weather, a diversified investment portfolio may benefit from an allocation to this alternative asset class. With continued uncertainty and persistent inflation, conditions may be in place for sustained growth that could enhance risk-adjusted returns of a portfolio.

Chart 1: Growth of $10,000 — Commodities versus other asset classes

Source: Morningstar, abrdn. Data from June 1, 2002 - May 31, 2022. Bloomberg Commodity Index = BCOM Index, S&P 500 = SPXT Index, US Bonds = Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, MSCI World = MXWO Index. Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index. S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to represent the U.S. economy. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US dollar, fixed-rate taxable bond market. MSCI World Index is an equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets. Past performance does not predict future performance. One cannot invest directly in an index. The performance table and graph do not reflect the deduction of taxes that a shareholder would pay on any Fund distributions or the redemption of any Fund shares. For illustrative purposes only.

1 Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index.
2 Modern Monetary Theory - The central idea of MMT is that governments with a fiat currency system under their control can and should print as much money as they need to spend because they cannot go broke or be insolvent unless a political decision to do so is taken.
3 La Niña - weather pattern that is characterized by unusually low temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is linked to floods and drought.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

*More information regarding Table 1:

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI)- refers to a specific grade of crude oil. It’s one of the main three benchmarks in oil pricing, along with Brent and Dubai Crude. It is the main oil benchmark for North American oil.
  • Brent crude refers to oil that originates from oil fields in the North Sea between the Shetland Islands and Norway. It’s one of the main three benchmarks in oil pricing, along with West Texas Intermediate and Dubai Crude. It’s the most popular oil pricing benchmark.
  • Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) is motor gasoline blending components intended for blending with oxygenates to produce finished reformulated gasoline.
  • Ultra-low sulfur (ULS) diesel is a cleaner-burning diesel fuel that contains 97% less sulfur than low-sulfur diesel (LSD). ULS diesel was developed for improved pollution control.
  • Sources Include: U.S. Energy Information Association, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Sciencenotes.org, Aluminum.org, Sugar.org

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Prospectuses for Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold Shares ETF, Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF, Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF, Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF and Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF

An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the ETFs carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, call 1-844-383-7289 or visit abrdn.com/usa/etf. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Trading in commodities entails a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

Projections are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance. Projections are not guaranteed and actual events or results may differ materially.

“Bloomberg®” and “Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM,” “Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month ForwardSM” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total ReturnSM” are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC. Bloomberg is not affiliated with abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCI), abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCD), and abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF (BCIM). Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total Return.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the distributor for abrdn ETFs.

There are risks associated with investing including possible loss of principal. ALPS is not affiliated with abrdn.

US-060622-176099-1

EFS000440  6/6/23

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Important Risks

The abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust and abrdn Palladium ETF Trust are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.

The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:

A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently, its price and the price of the Shares;

Investors’ expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;

Currency exchange rates;

Interest rates;

Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and

Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.

Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices, negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts’ physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen. Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the Trusts.

The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s precious metal that is not covered by insurance.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or "authorized participants" may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 25k to 100k shares.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the prospectus. Carefully consider each Trust’s investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please click here to review the prospectus.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for the abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust and abrdn Palladium ETF Trust.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the distributor for abrdn ETFs.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is not affiliated with the companies of abrdn.

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An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the ETFs carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, call 1-844-383-7289 or visit www.abrdn.com/us/etf. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Fund Risk: There are risks associated with investing including possible loss of principal. Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. There can be no assurance that the Fund’s investment objective will be met at any time. The commodities markets and the prices of various commodities may fluctuate widely based on a variety of factors. Because the Fund's performance is linked to the performance of highly volatile commodities, investors should consider purchasing shares of the Fund only as part of an overall diversified portfolio and should be willing to assume the risks of potentially significant fluctuations in the value of the Fund. Actively managed ETFs do not necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks, including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. The Fund’s return may not match the return of the index.

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The abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF is new and has limited operating history.

“Bloomberg®” and “Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM,” “Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month ForwardSM” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total ReturnSM” are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC. Bloomberg is not affiliated with abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCI), abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCD), and abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF (BCIM). Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total Return".

Please see the current prospectus, www.abrdn.com/us/etf for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment in the Funds.

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Standard Deviation: Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the extent to which returns of an asset vary from its average.

Bloomberg Commodity Index: The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes.

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