Key Calls 

  • Equilibrium policy interest rates are still low.
  • However, inflation has become structurally more

  • Emerging markets will drive three-quarters of global

    growth by 2050.

  • Nevertheless, a genuine challenger to the dominance

    of the US dollar is unlikely anytime soon.

  • Constrained fiscal space means tax takes and the term

    premium will increase over time.

  • AI will not cause net long-term unemployment.
  • The nature of globalisation will continue to change as

    the world fragments.

  • Mounting political polarisation will create sharp swing

    in economic, regulatory and social policy.


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