Key Takeaways

  • Trump is all but assured to win the Republican primary

    contest and leads Biden in early national head-to-head

    polling, including in five of the six swing states that will

    probably decide the general election.

  • Voters report negative perceptions of Biden, most

    notably in his handling of the economy despite its

    strong performance in recent quarters. The disconnect

    between weak economic sentiment and stronger hard

    data has been called the ‘vibecession’.

  • This is in part due to ongoing sensitivity to total price

    increases over Biden’s presidency. The highly

    polarised state of American politics is also skewing

    sentiment surveys, with partisan commitments

    affecting assessments of the state of the economy.

  • US consumer confidence has started to rebound

    recently, helped by slower inflation, indicating that the

    ‘vibecession’ may be at an end. However, this has yet

    to translate into any polling boost for Biden.

  • The stakes for the 2024 election are high, with a

    second Trump presidency likely to lead to even more

    economic and foreign policy volatility than his first.

  • Given these risks, we will explore the implications of

    Trump’s proposals, including the introduction of

    significant and widespread tariff increases, the rollback

    of aspects of Biden’s legislative efforts and the

    reshaping of US foreign policy in a series of notes

    ahead of the 2024 election.


    Read the full article.

Related articles