As we enter 2024, everyone is focused on the path of inflation, and the likely timing and pace of central bank interest-rate cuts, amid a broader economic slowdown that clouds the outlook for many major economies.
Complicating matters, voters in countries representing more than 40% of the world’s population go to the polls this year. Analysis of political risks will become even more important with a possible Trump presidency in the US and a general election in India having far-reaching political, economic and financial market implications. Meanwhile, tensions in a number of geopolitical hotspots around the world remain unresolved.
Looking further ahead, we need to ask ourselves whether AI is a curse or a boon, if countries can set aside their differences to achieve global climate goals, and whether ageing populations will force a rethink of growth assumptions?
- Manu Bhaskaran, Founding Partner and President/Chief Executive at Centennial Asia Advisors
- Peter Branner, Chief Investment Officer, Aberdeen Investments